Greed, grievance, leadership and external interventions in the initiation and intensification of the civil war in Angola

Abstract

Understanding the initiation of conflict is fundamental for the success of efforts in conflict prevention. The validity of the mechanisms of the “Greed and Grievance” model, alongside leadership and external interventions are tested in four periods of initiation and intensification of the conflict in Angola. All mechanisms are present but their relative relevance varies throughout the conflict. Among the mechanisms identified in each period the most relevant in the Cold War period are the international and regional interventions in 1961 and 1975 and in the post-Cold War period, the “greed” factors in 1992 (oil and diamonds, poverty and war capital) and the UNITA leadership of Jonas Savimbi in 1998. The case study provides evidence that “greed” and “grievance” can be interlinked (such as in 1992) and confirms the relevance of leadership and external interventions mechanisms.